Presidential Primary Misconceptions

It is pretty clear that the Obama campaign just doesn't understand how the presidential primary works. They are under the misconception that just because Obama has the largest popular vote and the most delegates that he is winning. That is so silly.

Let me go down the line and list all of the mistakes the Obama camp has made.

1. Obama folks claimed they won Iowa. Of course we know that Iowa didn't really count. At that time it wasn't about one state. It was about how many delegates you send to the convention. Hillary tried to explain this to him.
2. Later in the primaries Obama talked about how many delegates he won, but in that phase of the primary season it wasn't about delegates, but which states you win. Obama just doesn't understand.
3. Obama's next mistake was claiming that winning South Carolina was important, but African-American support really isn't that important for Democrats.
4. Then Obama won white, rural states like Idaho, Utah, and Nebraska, but they don't really count because they won't be competitive in the general election. And white voters really aren't that important to Democrats. Why is this so hard for Obama to understand?
5. Obama thought that winning Washington State, Wisconsin, and Missouri was a big deal because they are general election battleground states where polls show Barack is a stronger candidate against John McCain. Obama is so silly. Those voters were latte-sipping elitists. Latte-sippers don't count either.
6. Obama is happily pointing out that he won the most delegates in Texas. But who cares about that. He didn't win the most pimary ballot votes so winning the most delegates in Texas doesn't matter. Obama is so dense.

Obama thinks that just because he has more popular votes than Hillary and more delegates than Hillary that he is ahead in this primary race. Obviously he doesn't have the experience to understand how presidential candidates get nominated. Hillary is ready for this nomination NOW. I wish she would explain to him how the process works.

Denny Hastert's seat won by Democrats

Democrats are celebrating the election of a Democrat to replace Denny Hastert, former Speaker of the House. A win is a win, but Democrats should not get too cocky.

I just returned from a long weekend in the 14th Congressional District. I talked to a lot of voters, including many Republicans. I can tell you that Democrat Bill Foster didn't win. What really happened was that Jim Oberweis lost.

Oberweis is a nasty, dishonest millionaire who tries to buy an election every two years and hasn't succeeded yet. Oberweis ran for US Senator in 2002. He had never held any other elected office, but when you are really rich, why not just start at the top. He started a pattern of being aggressive, vicious, dishonest, and doing it with the force of his personal fortune. And that was against his fellow Republicans in the primary. And then losing.

Oberweis refused to give up. He ran for US Senator in 2004 also. He lost to a wife abuser with some twisted sexual ideas in the primary. When his story came out the Republicans imported Alan Keyes from another state to represent them rather than turning to Jim Oberweis.

In 2006 Oberweis ran in the Republican primary for Gov. Illinois had an incumbent Gov. that is considered stupid, corrupt, and ineffective by most of the Democratic voters. And the Gov. is a Democrat! He was so hated it would have been an automatic win except for the fact that the Republicans spent so much time cutting each others throats that the Dem Gov. was re-elected. Oberweis couldn't even win that primary.

After the Republicans lost the House in the 2006 election Hastert couldn't get out fast enough. The 14th has been a Republican district for decades. It is slowly softening, but is still a strong Republican district. It was an automatic win for the Republicans. Except, Oberweis had enough money to run the table. He savaged the Republican opposition. He finally won a primary. He had also been so hateful that many Republican voters just stayed home. Republican voters numbers where at suprising lows. On the other hand Democrats had a real candidate running a real race and that just doesn't normally happen in the 14th. They came out and voted.

Jim Oberweis spent 9 million dollars of his own money in the four races and still couldn't buy an election. He now joins that elite club of Republican millionaires that includes Mitt Romney and Dick DeVos.

Democrat Bill Foster will fill the seat of former Republican Speaker of the House, Denny Hastert, until Jan. of 2009. Many Republicans sent Jim Oberweis a message that they think he is a jerk.

This election was not an indication of how the nation is leaning. It is an indication of the total disarry of the Republican party in Illinois and the ilk that can buy a place on the ballot. If you read anything more into it than that you don't know Jack.

Nominating a President - Post March 4 Analysis

The last few numbers are still coming in from the March 4 primaries and caucus. The are a number of things that seem clear.

• Neither candidate has the enough delegates to win at the convention.
• Obama has earned more delegates over the course of the campaign. It looks like it is about 130 delegates.
• Obama is well positioned to win Wyoming and Mississippi. That may increase the spread slightly, but the numbers will not be decisive.
• The delegate spread will hardly be changed at all after March 4.

Based on the facts we know I have some opinions.

• Clinton is claiming a victory with 3 states to Obama's one state victory. I am declaring a tie based a delegate count was essentially a tie. Our system is silly because we don't use popular vote, but that is the way we do it.
• Hillary is in trouble. She is behind in delegate count. Her claim to victory is that she didn't fall farther behind. I would suggest that actually a victory would require pulling ahead or even showing good progress moving into the lead.
• Hillary out campaigned Barack in the last few weeks. Period.
• Barack is the delegate leader. He has the potential to win. Hillary can only win if Obama has a complete melt down. Her real hope is not losing yet. That will throw the contest into overtime where the Super Delegates will make the decision.
• Both of the candidates are becoming stronger campaigners. This has been good practice for the general election. It is ok for the contest to continue.
• Hillary should stay in through Pennsylvania. There is still a race. There is no reason for her to drop out. It looks impossible for her to win, but it should be her decision based on the voters, not pundits and back room politicians.

Are Politicians Working For You?

Sometimes we look at how our representatives vote and we just scratch our heads. What were they thinking? Or maybe a better question is, "Who are they working for?" Sometimes looking at who funds their campaigns clears up all your questions.

In the presidential arena Sen. Clinton and Sen. McCain have a similar approach. They go after big money people and big money special interest PACs. Then they sprinkle in some small contributors, just for giggles.

Sen. Obama has taken a different approach. No money from federal lobbyists or special interest PACs. He takes money from thousands of small contributors. Obama has broken all records. He has received over 1 million individual contributions.

Mitt Romney had a different approach. Write yourself checks. Personally, if I want a new camera or bike or whatever, I just buy myself one. However, it seems to be increasingly popular for politicians to try to buy themselves an office. In my book, that is going too far.

Our state representative race for Manistee and the 101st district has these same approaches to campaign financing. Our current representative was an ex-lobbyist. His campaigns were funded mostly by out of district rich people and special interest PACs. All contributions can be seen online through the Sec. of State. Look for yourself. Our rep is from Manistee. See how many local people were willing to even give him a buck. They are as rare as hens teeth.

There are 3 Republicans vying for the open state rep. seat. Look at their contributions records. Mike McManus can't find money anywhere. He might as well drop out now. Ray Franz and Janice McCraner have the same approach. About 75% of their campaign funds come from writing themselves a check. The local people willing to support them financially - put together - would fit in my living room.

Dan Scripps is the top fund raiser in our state rep. campaign. And like Obama he is setting new records for contributions from local people he will actually represent. It is not big money, 10 bucks here and 20 bucks there, but it adds up. Scripps had almost 400 contributors by Dec. 31. Nobody in this district has seen anything like it. And it does add up. Dan Scripps raised more money than all three Republicans combined!

For me, where campaigns get their money is important. I don't have much time for people who try to buy themselves a position, or who are willing to sell themselves to special interest PACs. I want to see lots of local voters chipping in whatever they can afford to give. That is a real measure of the support and respect a candidate enjoys.

This is just one reason why I like Scripps and Obama.