Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Nominating a President - Post March 4 Analysis

The last few numbers are still coming in from the March 4 primaries and caucus. The are a number of things that seem clear.
  • Neither candidate has the enough delegates to win at the convention.
  • Obama has earned more delegates over the course of the campaign. It looks like it is about 130 delegates.
  • Obama is well positioned to win Wyoming and Mississippi. That may increase the spread slightly, but the numbers will not be decisive.
  • The delegate spread will hardly be changed at all after March 4.

Based on the facts we know I have some opinions.

  • Clinton is claiming a victory with 3 states to Obama's one state victory. I am declaring a tie based a delegate count was essentially a tie. Our system is silly because we don't use popular vote, but that is the way we do it.
  • Hillary is in trouble. She is behind in delegate count. Her claim to victory is that she didn't fall farther behind. I would suggest that actually a victory would require pulling ahead or even showing good progress moving into the lead.
  • Hillary out campaigned Barack in the last few weeks. Period.
  • Barack is the delegate leader. He has the potential to win. Hillary can only win if Obama has a complete melt down. Her real hope is not losing yet. That will throw the contest into overtime where the Super Delegates will make the decision.
  • Both of the candidates are becoming stronger campaigners. This has been good practice for the general election. It is ok for the contest to continue.
  • Hillary should stay in through Pennsylvania. There is still a race. There is no reason for her to drop out. It looks impossible for her to win, but it should be her decision based on the voters, not pundits and back room politicians.

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